THE NOTE
ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary, foreign policy
Before Howard Dean's foreign policy speech, The Note conducted one of those modern e-mail interviews with Alton Frye of the Council on Foreign Relations about The Doctor's address.
In 2000, the CFR maintained one of the best political resources on the web, with lots of carefully crafted and cutting-edge use of the medium to provide information about the candidates' positions on foreign policy.
Check out their impressive 2004 site here, which does for foreign policy and the presidential candidates what somebody smart somewhere should be doing for domestic stuff. cfr.org
You'll be blown away by how deep and thorough it is.
So: here's our interview with Frye, who is the presidential Senior Fellow and Director for Congress and U.S. Foreign Policy at the CFR.
He is an expert on national security strategy and arms control. He often consults both the legislative and executive branches on these matters. LINK
The Note: How well does the foreign policy community in Washington know Governor Dean? Has he been active in the Council's world?
Frye: "Governor Dean remains a largely unknown quantity in the foreign policy community, but he is arousing a degree of curiosity comparable to that in the wider political world. He certainly got attention for his early and insistent challenge to the justification and wisdom of the war in Iraq. It is possible that that are some aspects of his experience that will emerge as relevant to current international issues ? obviously, his medical background might give him a purchase on the global crisis in HIV-AIDS."
The Note: "Bill Clinton got to the 'right' of the first George Bush on the issue of China and human rights. Is that something that Governor Dean or another Democratic could or should do?"
Frye: "Reports of Governor Dean's political dexterity suggest that he will look for some positions to flank President Bush, quite possibly on issues of human rights. I think it doubtful, however, that on these questions his maneuver would be to the right of Mr. Bush. More likely, especially in the context of widespread concerns over domestic civil liberties issues after 9/11, one speculates that he might move left on those issues."
"Bush has been, to use a poor term, less 'accommodationist' than some leaders with regard to China's or other governments' human rights practices ? his rhetoric has been pretty direct in challenging those governments even while he has addressed particular issues with them in a pragmatic manner. (An exception is Bush's relatively soft comments on Russia's campaign in Chechnya.) So it will be hard to get to the president's right in that zone. More likely, one might think, would be outflanking Bush by asserting that he has been insufficiently attentive to crucial alliance relations, especially in NATO. The tattered state of those relations could invite conservative attack, on the grounds that traditionally important institutions have been damaged in recent months."
The Note: Amongst Democrats you know who worked on foreign policy in the Clinton years, is there a lot of interest in or support for Howard Dean?
Frye: "I would characterize their attitude as wary curiosity. There is concern that, to the degree his current themes and appeals are successful in mobilizing support among Democratic partisans, he could make it harder to produce a united party able to challenge Bush in the center. That is the clear message of the sharp critiques he has excited from circles around the Democratic Leadership Council."
The Note: "Have any of the candidates established themselves as the Council front-runners?"
Frye: "Since the Council never develops an institutional position on any candidate, no one can answer that question. At this stage Council members are beginning to listen, but I doubt that many have formed even preliminary views about their preferences among the Democratic contenders. Republicans among the diverse Council membership seem to parallel the national distribution of opinion in solid support for the president's foreign policy --- despite serious currents of unease about the prospect of protracted, inconclusive engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan."
The Note: By what measures/standards will Governor Dean's audience today judge his remarks?
Frye: "As with all politicians, a lot of the reaction will be a matter of personal chemistry and subjective inclinations in the audience. Added to that, however, people will certainly be looking to see if there is depth, rather than superficiality or pre-cooked comments, in the Governor's assessment of the international scene. His skepticism about the policy in Iraq is already known, so members will be interested to learn how cogent an argument he develops on that issue."
"More important will be what Dr. Dean has to say about other pending challenges to American foreign policy. What issues attract his attention? What insights does he bring to bear on them? Does he have any novel and plausible approaches to healing the breach in Transatlantic relations, to shaping a modus vivendi with Russia and China, to forging a more effective campaign against terrorism, to reinvigorating the faltering non-proliferation regime in North Korea and Iran, etc. The list is very long indeed."
The Note: Beyond the war against Iraq, are there divisions or schools within the Democratic party that you see on foreign policy? If so, where are they? Frye: "In the general mood compelling Democrats to demonstrate that they are strong and reliable on national security issues --- not a new problem for the party but one greatly exacerbated by 911 ? there seems to be a fault line, rather vague, between those Democrats who believe that the way to do so is by supporting large increases in defense spending and those who feel that the party now needs to emphasize a responsibly frugal approach to security investments. A main theme will likely center on tradeoffs between dollars for defense modernization and dollars for additional measures of homeland security. One may also anticipate a significant cleavage among Democrats over aspects of international trade policy, as one recalls from the party divisions over NAFTA and other such undertakings over the last decade when Republicans saved the deals in Congress by supporting proposals that originated in the past Democratic administration."
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