hi KJC,
i think i mentioned the "exogenous shock" w/r/t peak oil, in reference to the lala-land idea of 1.3 billion Chinese becoming yuppies...
By way of example, suppose I came up with some new invention tomorrow, that with a low cost retrofit, everyone in the world could run their cars efficiently and cleanly on simple tap water, with no environmental impacts or harmful by-products.
well, suppose i became a mutant like in X-men 2. i could control the whole world and everybody in it like the Jean-Luc Picard dude, as long as there wasn't some other X-men dude causing me to become deluded.
or what if somebody invented a technology so we could fly like Neo in the Matrix (or better yet, all get paid 15% of the gross like the actor)?
there are a lot of what-ifs in the world...
or suppose somebody invents a machine that turns water into ice at room temperature. everybody'd die.
wait, Vonnegut already did that, called it Ice 9.
by following the logic of the oil optimists, i could say that the chaos Ice 9 would cause shows how everybody in the world has a "vested interest" in the non-development of Ice 9. and then i could use this supposed vested interest as a pseudo-proof that Ice 9 will be invented anyway due to the triumph of humanity or some other compelling reason.
Vonnegut said he met a crystallogist at a party and asked him if Ice 9 were possible. the scientist thought hard about it for a while and said: "Impossible".
Vonnegut smartly kept his idea in the realm of humorous fiction.
as for turning water into wine or gasoline or whatever: good luck. however, i suspect it may be more promising as the lead character in a work of fiction than in a patent application. |
