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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 55.32+2.7%Jan 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: Ibexx who wrote (8766)6/27/2003 9:21:16 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
TLRK/AMGN

I haven't heard or seen anything over and above what was in their filings. A merger certainly makes sense - TLRK has a good stable of early stage drugs with large potential that they don't really have the wherewithal to develop themselves. Further, their most advanced project is somewhat shaky (at least in my view, having been advanced based on a skimpy Phase II). That's a good setup for a merger. At the back of management's mind must be what happens if T67 fails - so the risk averse path for them now is to be munched.

Obviously at this point AMGN is the only candidate, which of course makes a bidding war impractical. So what is going to drive things is whether AMGN comes up with a sweet enough offer or not. (And, more cynically, what will be in it for existing management).

As for price, it's very hard to tell. TLRK has run up a bunch already from its lows, so I doubt if you'd see much more than say a 25% premium over where we are now.

I'm holding my TLRK stake for now.

Peter
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