Galapagos Islands Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (43104)	6/27/2003 10:56:44 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (1) of 57110

Why only to some extent? "Correlation does not imply causation." isn't really subject to dispute. Of course, correlation obviously does not mean causation does not exist, either. One possible basis of TA is that price and indicator movements are both caused by underlying factors- -that is actually the ideal situation, I think. Spurious correlation is the real danger here. TA logic is usually probabilistic- -"The last 12 times we see this pattern, this happened 9 times." The problem, of course, is that, given enough data, spurious correlations are essentially certain and you may have just found one. The next run of the pattern may give exactly the result you don't want. (The problem I have with most TA claims is that little or no data to back them is presented. And often the data needed to verify them is unavailable.) OTOH, nothing better than that is seemingly available. If a surefire method of extracting money from Mr. Market were found, word of it would spread in spite of efforts to keep it quiet- -and it would stop working since everyone can't win. (At least not in the short run.)

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next