BC:
Good comments.
At this end, and for better or worse, I am loading the short side now. Not yet in "nuclear" mode, but definitely out of the fox hole. Also broadening out...... not just the "mortally wounded".
For the next while, I see the semis and the airlines as preferred targets, with occasional forays into selected financials (have been scalping FNM already).
My reasons for venturing out now include;
- it's been a looooooooong rally.
- sentiment numbers are remarkably lobsided.
- remarkable bullish confidence (complacency)
- the "warnings" (so far) confirm an upcoming ugly H2
- for a variety of reasons, the U.S. consumer (the guy the whole world depends on), is pulling in his horns.
- lay-offs continue unabated.
- instead of addressing their messy balance sheets, many corporations are making things worse by piling into even greater debt.
- the first signs of derivatives "strain" are starting to show up.
- money flows to the funds are simply not nearly great enough to sustain this rally.
- as noted earlier, many exposed fund managers are more than uncomfortable and eager to be "out early" (and to me, it looks like they are already sliding out the exits).
- massive (indeed historic) insider selling, NIL insider buying.
- crummy charts everywhere, with more head-and-shoulders than an NFL defensive line.
- Greenprint out of ammo.
- the buck is in deep doo-doo.
- foreigners are starting to repatriate (and for me, this is a gigantic item).
At this end, the market looks like an aircraft that is running low on fuel while flying in IFR conditions.
Best, Earlie |
