an interesting summer
Since the carrier speech came 18 months prior to the '04 election, it is convenient to divide the time into three 6 month periods. I have already shown that at the current rate of attrition, the American death toll will increase by an amount equal to the number killed during the "regular" war during each of these 6 month periods.
The definition of an early-stage guerrilla war is, of course, that it consists of very small units, widely dispersed, with very little central coordination. The more concentrated the force and the more centrally commanded, the easier it is to defeat. Successful guerrilla movements are inherently "disorganized"
When first disturbed, people, like ants, exhibit a lot of chaotic "running around" with little obvious purpose. But, just like those ants, in short order, a pattern of more purposeful organized behavior will soon become the new norm. The post Saddam American occupied Iraq is now becoming. It's still only a shadowy outline. Some of the new structure, is under American control, but by no means all. There is an undeniable widespread antipathy for the American presence. If the sporadic attacks plaguing the Occupying Forces have become an integral part of the new emerging pattern in Iraq by this fall at the end of the first 6 months, this “interesting” summer will be followed by a winter of discontent. By next summer, Rumsfeld's denial of a guerrilla war, may no longer be possible.
JMO
lurqer |
