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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: KyrosL who wrote (24176)	6/28/2003 2:16:02 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) of 206093

For the last 50 years oil was going to peak sometime in the next 20 years. Every 10-20 years later it's still sometime in the next 20 years. The supply of oil is a simple function of price. We will always have the same old cycles no matter where we are in the macro picture of oil supply, just at higher and higher prices. This is and always will be a cyclically business. Buying the dips near the end of a cycle can be detrimental to your pocket book. The question is where are we in the cycle? Will the US be able to get Iraq oil back on production at levels that will lower oil prices to $20.00 as they claim??? Will hotter weather slow or reverse the acceleration in NG supply??? Will the much more efficient IPP's offset the higher energy demand??? Time will tell, but when people start talking about the oil business changing forever and shortages that can't be supplied it's time to sell and go short. Jim

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