Hello CB, <<if I were you, I'd be mildly puzzled at the resilience of the US economy>>
... I am not surprised about the resilience of the US economy, because I believe I know why, it may have much to do with ...
<<house value has approximately doubled since we bought it, September 1999. We're refinancing again. First 8%, then 7%, then 6%, and now 5%>>
... which is part of this Script Message 15113604
January 3rd, 2001
Regardless of the prophecies and sagely council, the simple observable facts are exactly that … observable ... A miserly, miserable and all expected 1% interest rate drop by Al Greenspan will not be able to stop the bleeding, but only give a final wink of hope before the candles gets snuffed out by the simple lack of oxygen and the will to “buy and hold”. What may delay the reckoning will be a massive and unforgivable release of real liquidity that will replace the vaporized trillions of false value.
... if so, then I know where this trajectory leads.
<<selling short isn't working>> ... is true and correct, but straddles work beautifully Message 19045374 <<June 19th, 2003>>
<<Gold isn't working>> ... is not as true, and so not altogether correct ... Message 18916813 and Message 18997777
<<No quick fixes>> ... this is likely to be the case, and I have been recommending thus Message 19037330 <<June 16th, 2003>>
<<I am mildly puzzled at the resilience of the Chinese economy>> ... the facts are not actually any secret, for they work, attract international investing electorates, export, save, build, earn, and build again, without foreign entanglements, overseas adventures, and the government is getting ever smaller by staffing count, whereas the vision is getting more grand Message 19041805 <<June 18th, 2003>>
The funding requirement is in large measure in thanks to Greensputin and Bernankaput Message 19043871 <<June 18th, 2003>>
And I disregard what FT and WSJ has to say about bubbles and such Message 19044568 <<June 19th, 2003>>, because matters are cheap, and the bubble is still in our future.
In any case, the PRC central bank is on the lookout for bubbles and apparently feel they can do something about it, since they do not subscribe to the Greensputin way of denying responsibility Message 19059192 .
<<I keep reading in the Financial Times (of London)>>
... FT is not always correct Message 19041042 <<June 18th, 2003>>, but in many ways it is better than the WSJ.
<<China is going to devalue (you meant to write 'revalue'?)but I don't believe it. They've been saying that for years and I think it's wishful thinking>>
... I think you are right on this (revalue), for perhaps at least 18 months, maybe as long as 60 months, but am getting ready for the inevitable eventuality, because it is along the road to TeoTwawKi.
My current worry is Message 19044668 <<June 19th, 2003>>
Chugs, Jay |
