I think FA is going to dictate gold stocks' direction very
soon. By FA I mean the US dollar's direction will likely determine's gold's. I don't think of going by the dollar charts as TA so much as FA, although there's a TA element in timing. Turning to gold is savers' ultimate fundamental response to currency debasement, and investors' hedge against it. To the extent that FA perceptions drive the buy/sell decisions that provide the data for TA, it's key how we think others will react to the key FA drivers in our sector as they unfold. To me the key FA driver for gold stocks (less so, and less quickly, for juniors than seniors) is the POG and its reciprocal, the US$.
For TA with junior gold stocks I tend to use moving averages, trendlines, and green volume more than candlestick patterns.
I read the recent mixed signals as gold stock buyers discounting a bounceback in the POG--one I'm not betting on so soon. The POG/HUI divergence won't continue much longer if gold keeps sliding. I too like to anticipate turning points (though I can't claim your timing record). The only TA I use that points me to any buying of gold stocks is the POG having just bounced off the bottom of the down-channel, and the concommitant turn up of the MACD:
stockcharts.com[r,a]dbclyiay[pc13!c26!b200!i!f][vc60][iub14!uk14!lc5!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lf!ll14][J14340434,Y]&listNum=3
I want to see HUI bounce off the rising trendline of the ascending triangle before I buy any more:
stockcharts.com[r,a]wbclyiay[pb25!b50!b200!i!f][vc60][iub14!uk14!lc14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lf!ll14][J8992973,Y]&listNum=3
Right now the stocks that look best to me include:
Anatolia:
stockcharts.com[r,a]wbclyiay[pb25!b50!b100!b200!i!f][vc60][iub14!uk14!lc14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lf!ll14][J6704510,Y]&listNum=6
Stealth:
stockcharts.com[r,a]wbclyiay[pc13!c26!b200!i!f][vc60][iub14!uk14!lc5!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lf!ll14][J12136028,Y]&listNum=6
Gammon Lake:
stockcharts.com[r,a]dbclyiay[pc13!c26!b200!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Lc5!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Ll14]&pref=G
Holding GG and NEM calls for the spike effect and/or insurance value. I'll find out after the fact which it was. |
