OT (long): Battle of the stock pickers. Paul S. vs. other value players:
Over the past several years I've had discussions here and other threads with several people about some of their specific picks vs. what I have considered to be comparable but superior choices. Some of these stocks have subsequently been sporadically discussed. Here's an update in performance regarding some of the stocks that I recall:
MBIA vs. ABK (Jim Clarke pick)
ABK seems to have been the better choice here,
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No matter whether it's a 5-year, 2-year, 1-year, 6-mo. time frame comparison. Somewhere after about the 3rd year of ABK being mentioned here, I acknowdged this and started a small exploratory position. Shoulda/coulda/dint buy more, esp. when ABK (or MBI) was at lows.
LNY vs. RARE and/or STAR (Burry pick?). All looked good, but I chose LNY because there were already many steakhouse chains extant. Seafood, being more perishable (assuming not all frozen), I figured was more difficult to manage, so I believed seafood houses had a higher barrier to entry. Nevertheless, RARE & STAR have turned out to be the better performers.
As is typical, it depends a great deal on when these stocks were bought. Looking at the five year comparison charts, it appears that LNY has only held its own while the other two have moved up:
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Actually these stocks were first discussed last quarter '98, so individual charts show performance much better:
RARE's gone up about six fold:
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STAR's multiplied about 3-4 times:
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LNY's multiplied about three times:
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STAR doesn't look too bad to me even now: Under book value, no ltd, strong buy recommendations from analysts. 15x '03 earnings est. is high but comparable to other stocks in the sector. I'm now looking at LNY as a growth stock, and added just a bit to my position.
ZQK vs. ANF (Jim Clarke buy)
ANF has been the better performer. Probably more so than this chart shows.
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I trimmed back my ZQK position and bought ANF after ANF was discussed (on Buffettology thread). I'm considering adding a bit more to my ANF position even now.
VLGEA (timing play). Long-term buyer/holder (me) vs. Dale Baker (take short term profit, out for better opps. elsewhere). (note: doing this from memory. May not have facts/motivations right).
Added to my position @$24. Dale Baker may have exited at that time. I had my chance for the big (%) profits:
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Still holding though. (oops). I can't give it up now: Under stated book, debt -- but lots of cash too. Low p/e.
Ah cripes. I see as I go through my screens more carefully, I got a ton of these comparisons I could write about. And I seem to be getting beat up on almost all them. lol. MLS vs. CPG
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RCRC (Clarke, later Grommit) vs. JAKK
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So I'll just jump to my favorite - the one where I go against the world and I do well -g-: Somewhere around 1/'00 when QCOM was splitting and the media was ablaze with stories of this stock, I started comparing QCOM here to what I figured was a typical unknown value stock that would be a much better bet than QCOM-- World Fuel(INT). QCOM was $150, now it's 36. INT danced around 6-8 for about a year, then started to move up. It closed Fri. at about $24. I sold my last shares around $20-21.
I make these observations from all this:
1. Timing of the stock buys makes a big difference. I notice for example, that the five year comparison of INT vs. QCOM shows that QCOM would've been the superior and profitable stock pick.
2. The performance of others' stock picks here has soundly trounced the performance of my picks in many (most?) instances, esp. when I go head-to-head, my choice vs. theirs. I count my blessings nonetheless: it has been better to be in stocks that have moved up - even if they're not up as much as others' - than to be in stocks that went down or not be in stocks at all. Sometimes, given a decent time interval, the #2 stocks do work out satisfactorily.
3. It's still about making money. Percentage comparisons and time frame comparisons, even stock choice comparisons, pale if one compares the relative bet size. For me and my small bets, having a couple winners won't much affect my portfolios. For others who run a concentrated portfolio, seeing even just a 25% gain in one stock they have confidence in - no matter how it compares to any other stock anybody else suggests - might appreciably improve their net worth.
Paul Senior |
