Fruit Soup: Marketshare by Technology
Slacker,
<< Here are some round numbers off the top of my head that should be in the ballpark. >>
Methinks, you may have blended some fruit soup, ole buddy. <g>
This is the first year I recall that Qualcomm has ever come back and positively adjusted handset numbers after their usual skate by in their first CQ1 CC.
In the prior year they used Strategy Analytics numbers (the highest reported by anyone for CDMA). The year before that they used MicroLogic's (the highest reported by anyone for CDMA). In 2001 Matt Hoffman credited CDMA with 18.5% (sell-thru) but that was against Nokia's reported sell-thru number which was lower than Strategy Analytics or Gartner.
Since Qualcomm adjusted up this year from reported license revenues I take the numbers to reflect sell-in reasonably accurately, and its the first year in awhile I have been comfortable with their reported number.
In a perfect world sell-thru equals sell-in, but this is not a perfect world and we know that sell-in last year exceeded sell-thru but whether that is more true of CDMA than other techbologies is open to debate.
The 405 million number you are using for 2002 is Nokia's sell-thru number. Several other houses use that number, but it originated from Nokia.
If you happen to accept Per Lindberg of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein's (DWK) numbers for 2002 sell-in (whih i think are high) than CDMA handset sales (sell-in) were 87M (18.1%) out of 480 million.
If you balance Qualcomm's 87 million against Gartner Dataquest's 437 million sell-thru number (which when they reported at the end of 2002 excluded iDEN - now they are including iDEN) you get 19.9% CDMA, but again that is sell-in at least it appears to me to be) against sell-thru.
Too many numbers floating around.
I happen to take Gartner Dataquest's numbers, the research methodology that backs it up, and their delayed reporting, as the most credible in the industry. Perhaps you favor someone else, but apples are never oranges, so we need to apply one set of numbers against a corresponding set of numbers, perhaps averaging same, or you have fruit soup as an end result.
All FWIW & JMHO.
- Eric - |
