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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (24244)7/1/2003 1:53:01 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 206093
 
projections of peak oil production couldn't account for new technologies

of course they account for "new technologies". the Hubbert peak would have a much steeper backside (it would be a cliff instead of a curve) if it weren't for anticipated technological innovations and higher prices that allow for extraction of harder-to-exploit reserves.
but remember, technology is only useful to the extent that it allows extraction on a net energy basis. a lot of the hyped energies of the future don't allow this.

also, you need to look at how much extraction is enabled by a particular technology. in the greater scheme of things (i.e., total global production), they cannot stem the tide.

Methane hydrate deposists, for example, are estimated at twice the total global amount of reserves of gas+oil+coal (!).

from what i have read, methane hydrates are by and large not promising since they are solid and thus do not pool in sufficient concentrations to enable widespread extraction. methane hydrates will always be "the energy of the future".

as Campbell writes: "Gas hydrates from the ocean depths can
be confidently dismissed. They occur mainly as disseminated granules and laminae, meaning that the
methane cannot migrate to ac cumulate in commercial quantities. Some of the reported thicker hydrate
deposits appear to be nothing more than seepages of conventional gas on the seabed."

also, there is considerable doubt about the aggregate promise of tar sands given the energy consumption and environmental issues involved in their exploitation. doesn't mean there won't be a few success stories, a la APC with methane hydrates. but you need more than a few drops to fill a leaky bucket.

Peak oil production may be here (I doubt it), but we are far from peak hydrocarbon production.

while total hydrocarbon production will have a different peak from oil, i suggest you read some of Colin Campbell's papers. perhaps he knows more than the third-grade teachers in the 1950s knew.
hubbert.mines.edu
hubbert.mines.edu
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