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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (24246)	7/2/2003 12:10:20 AM
From: kormac	Read Replies (1) of 206093

Darfot, Ninety percent of oil in production today is what Campbell calls conventional. Forty six percent of it comes from 120 top producing fields. When these fields are in the grips of depletion, the peak will have arrived. Hubbert's analysis is easy to carry out, and Kenneth Deffeyes has an article in the O&GJ in which he says the peak will be in early 2005. Other calculations point to 2007 as the peak year. Hydrates are for thermodynamic reasons unimportant and shale and tar sands have similar handicaps. It just takes a lot of energy to produce energy from them. This is the net energy issue you mention. Economics does not help here as the accounting is based on energy rather than money. Campbell gives a good reason to remain invested in oil and gas. The response to any energy crisis is more drilling as it has produced results in the past and is thus a proven way to proceed. Hence we will do what we have always done and change only we become completely aware that it no longer works. As someone mentioned, the business can remain cyclical past the peak, as demand dries up, prices drop.

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