Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: energyplay who wrote (35631)	7/2/2003 2:14:11 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) of 74559

More on Japan - On the Bloomberg Asia Moneycast, Bhanu Baweja, a currency strategist for UBS in Singapoer, said he expects that Japan will allow some appreciation of the Yen between now and year end of 2003. He sees the Yen going down to about 108 per USD. He sees the Aussie dollar and the Swiss franc as the best currency bets (long) for the rest of the year. He expect 2 rate cuts by the ECB of 25 bp each. He also expects the Euro to get to about $1.25. My take - This Yen appreciation provides some protecion and an added bonus for buying Japanesse equities. With the Yen now at 119.3, that's about 9.5 % apprecaition in the next 6 months. Even a little bit of that (3%) added to market gains would be nice. The currency guy also said that it appears from UBS propreitary data that Europpeans continue to sell US securties, and the boom in US markets is from internal funds. My take on this - Since European investors tend to be heavily concentrated in large caps, index names, and large, visible multinationals, some of this head wind can be avoided by staying in small cap US stocks.

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