From Briefing.com: 7:41AM Novellus cut to Underweight at JP Morgan (NVLS) 36.61: JP Morgan downgrades to Underweight from Neutral and cuts their 2004-05 ests well below consensus based on lower rev and reduced margin expectations, as they expect pricing pressure to linger as well as a drag effect from under-performing product lines.
7:22AM Microsoft upgraded at Merrill Lynch (MSFT) 26.15: -- Update -- Merrill Lynch upgrades to Buy from Neutral and adds the stock to their Focus 1 List; firm cites the potential for EPS upside, a possible increase in the dividend, and the valuation disparity to its peer group; target is $30.
6:43AM Early Research Calls : Merrill Lynch upgrading MSFT to Buy from Neutral, and adding to Focus 1 list; firm also adds WMT to Focus 1 list... BofA upgrading ITMN to Buy from Neutral... JP Morgan out with a host of calls: firm downgrading NVLS to Underweight from Neutral and cutting SYMC and CHKP to Underweight from Neutral, while upping NETE and KIND to Overweight and raising SNWL and BEBE to Neutral... UBS cuts WTW to Neutral from Buy... WR Hambrecht raising BGEN to Buy... Thomas Weisel initiating UTSI with an Outperform... Piper Jaffray downgrading CAG to Underperform from Mkt Perform.
Last Night: Might it be deja vu all over again for the market in the third quarter? It certainly appeared that way on Tuesday as the major indices took a hit in the morning following a relatively disappointing ISM Index only to rally back smartly in the afternoon to finish at, or near, their highs for the day.
Program trading, talk of an asset allocation trade out of bonds and into stocks, and a favorable court ruling for the brokerage industry were driving forces behind the comeback effort. Technical factors also played an important role as the Nasdaq's re-test of the 1598 area precipitated renewed buying interest that was concentrated, initially, in the tech sector. The 1598 level, which was successfully defended on two prior re-tests (June 9 and June 24), represents the low end of the trading range the Nasdaq held to in June.
Separately, the influential SOX Index garnered support after dropping below its 50-day simple moving average (i.e. 358.19) earlier in the day. It ended the session at 366.10, which was roughly 4.3% higher than its intra-day low. Intel (INTC 21.41 +0.60) contributed noticeably to the turnaround bid, as did a number of other large-cap stocks, which traded higher on volume that was about equal to their 3-month daily average.
Nasdaq volume totalled 1.72 bln shares, which isn't heavy, yet it is worth noting that volume picked up as the afternoon rebound progressed. Overall, it was a positive session, but that is in keeping with the historical pattern as funds traditionally look to put money to work on the first day of trading in Q3. What they do for the remainder of the quarter should be dictated by what they hear during the Q2 reporting period. Until then, sentiment in the tech sector is expected to remain mixed with some good days and some lackluster days along the way.-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com
SanDisk (SNDK) 41.62 +1.05: Based on recent positive data points, WR Hambrecht is increasingly comfortable with its Q2 and 2003 outlook for SNDK and Lexar Media (LEXR 9.70 +0.24). Firm notes that yr-to-date, shipments of >3MP cameras are growing even faster at 272% over last yr. Firm believes that rapidly falling prices on digital cameras are driving robust consumer uptake. For example, for May, the ASP for a 3-4MP camera was $217, and is currently declining at a rate of approx. 30-40% yr/yr.
LSI Logic (LSI) 7.46 +0.38: The upgrade from Underweight is based on view that co is taking the necessary steps to right-size its operating structure to reflect the ongoing trajectory of the business. Expects stock to perform in line with firm's universe of stocks. Firm raises 2003 est to ($0.15) from ($0.25) and 2004 est to $0.25 from $0.10 (Reuters Research consensus estimates are -$0.27 and $0.11).
TranSwitch (TXCC) 1.53 +0.17: After the close, co announced that it now sees Q2 revenues of approx. $6 mln vs previous guidance of $4.5-$5.0 mln (Reuters Research consensus $4.78 mln). TXCC cites stronger European demand for the co's DSL product line. However, for Q3 co is estimating revenues of approx. $4.5 mln (consensus $4.90 mln).
Rudolph Tech (RTEC) 15.53 -0.43: Prudential maintained their Sell rating and $10 target on RTEC based on the their belief that RTEC's mkt share could decline despite current impressive design wins; firm says recent checks suggest the competitive metal metrology tool from KLAC could be introduced at Semicon West in July 2003, and firm thinks that AMAT could also introduce a new metal metrology tool, the BX-30 product, from its recent Boxer Cross acquisition.
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