Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (6369)	7/2/2003 7:42:44 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 25522

RE: "Just as an example, INTC is spending approximately 13% of its revs on capex this year; this is below its range of 15% to the low 20's....additionally, these low capex levels are happening at or near the trough of a cycle....this is the key point! Should a fairly robust upcycle appear out of the blue, it seems fairly likely there will be shortages." INTC is below range this year, but you should consider more than one year. I am not certain that current conditions can be correctly called a "trough" for INTC. INTC is in transition. Very few users need 2 to 3+ GHz processors, now. High bandwidth networks are necessary for more processor power to be required. An upcycle will not appear "out of the blue." It will be based on the efforts of many technology companies and shortages are not likely to be a major factor.

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