Hello Maurice, As Japanese bonds are now getting bid down, and yields rise, the Japanese banks are, once again, on the cusp of serious catastrophe, and if so, then same for their debtors. We are precisely at this point in the Script:
Message 16731206
December 1st, 2001
Maurice, … I am ... concerned about the passing of the always-yet-another storms of Japan banking crisis, Asian Financial Crisis, Russia, Argentina, etc etc. Not about their passing, but about what they collectively may have been masking all along, a Perfect Storm, comprised of:
(a) Globalization (Eurozone realization, China transformation/integration, ME disintegration, amongst the bigger of the events)
(b) Global banking crisis (Japan is banker to the world, and Japan is in trouble, along with all the public, private and individual piggy banks broken all around the world, necessitating all governments to print money, for both productive and unproductive acts)
(c) Tech bubble explosion (just happened, and biggest ever)
(d) Money bubble formation (has been happening, and bigger still)
(e) Synchronized global downturn
(f) Unfavorable demographics
(g) War/Peace and other distractions
(h) Political extremism and other nuisances, and
(i) Ever more technology-driven compressed time frame, affording little opportunity for acclimatization, to crouch, or to hide.
… Japan accounts for 40% of global savings. When (not if) the US radically reduces buying, due to tapped out credit and impending retirement, the Japanese will stop buying raw material, withdraw credit from where it has been taken for granted, mistreated, and no longer needed, then … well, you get the picture, as global trade gets smashed with a sledge hammer.
The only remaining New Ec edifice yet to be wobbled is the so far impervious USD, used everywhere, and hoarded by plenty. When the USD collapses, it will be too late for us bull and bear threaders to be calmly discussing whether it will collapse or not, or whether another Greenspankie inspired false abracadabra will save the day. Can you say hedge?
… Are you ready?
Chugs, Jay |
