Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Will Lyons who wrote (10403)	7/4/2003 5:39:51 PM
From: Return to Sender	of 95572

Will, I think you are correct that you should be looking for those kinds of companies. Lets find more of them and discuss them here. Where I get concerned is that if the market is overvalued (and I think it is) then all stocks should correct. Even if they do not correct immediately (which I don't necessarily think they will) then it is difficult for growth trends to extend themselves higher for significant periods of time. Remember how hot the DVD Chip stocks like ESST, ZRAN and others were a year and a half ago? They were growing profits rapidly. Competition from other companies with excess capacity slowed profit growth. Competing new chip designs really whacked the heck out of ESST. It did not help ZRAN much either. So my point is that unless a company is so far out on the leading edge someone will catch up eventually. If there is a lot of profit being funneled into one sector of the market then new competitors will look to take some market share from the leaders. Even leading edge companies with real market strangle holds like CSCO or MSFT are subject to valuation issues so I think trading the range is the only way to truly profit until we get a business led economic recovery. That is until the market falls enough to be oversold on both a technical and sentiment basis. Then I will go long at least medium term. Right now I'll make short term trades cautiously long or short as my favorite indicators dictate while reading the technical changes in the charts. JMHO, RtS

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