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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.18

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4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (10399)	7/4/2003 8:11:43 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 95541

RE: "What if technology stocks were actually valued like blue chip stocks where P/E ratios and dividends truly matter?" If my 8 were appropriately valued like blue chip stocks, then I would be concerned for far more than my stock profits and losses. I would worry that the Great Depression was returning along with the rise of the "isms" that lead to world war and the Holocaust. Most of the so-called "blue chip" stocks can't produce significantly better than average long term returns without resorting to crime or exploitation. They don't have mechanisms like Moore's Law. I don't know how low tech stocks can go, but I believe the risk/reward for them decreases over time as we move away from the bubble peak. I have said it before. You are trading near the bottom. I believe that I will achieve much larger gains by just holding quality tech companies. Don does us all a great service by providing his tables. The least reliable numbers are this and next year's earnings estimates and the estimates for 5 year growth rates. The market in 2000 was a no-brainer (SELL DUMMIES) compared to today's market and almost nobody got it. Look at the big picture. Do you expect great things from technology in the next few years which will build on and, in many ways, dwarf current technology? I do! Do you expect semi and semi equip revenues and profits to eclipse 2000 levels in the next few years? I do! Do you expect your portfolio to grow to 3, 5 or 10 times its current value in the next few years? I do!

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