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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 296.74+1.8%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (10415)7/5/2003 2:22:06 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) of 95487
 
Gottfried, Good question - I don't think I have a good answer, but I do have a couple of comments.

There seems to have been a gradual fall-off of analysts following the semi-equips in the Group. I don't know why, but maybe it has to do with the length of the downturn. It has been going onward of 3+ years now - it is getting boring.

I think it was about 2 weeks ago that I saw an item out of Briefing.com about 1 of the brokerage houses( I think it was Thomas Wiesel) not following companies in the semi-equip field anymore at the present time. I think others have made the same decision in the last few months. On 2/14/03, 281 estimates were made for the semi-equip group. Today, 248 estimates are made for the same Group - a loss of 33 estimates. I think that trend will continue until some turn around in the Group is seen.

Looking for action in the semi-equip field for the past many months has been about as exciting as watching paint dry! I remember last year about this time the realization hit the financial press with a bang that there was going to be no 2nd half recovery in 2002. You know what happened then - a big down trend until the bottom hit on 9 October - then a big bounce. Today, it sounds like de ja vue all over again - waiting for a 2nd half recovery that is not here yet IMO.

Don
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