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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.74

+1.8%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10429)	7/5/2003 2:54:58 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 95487

Gottfried, That chart has a very powerful message - chip sales have been rising for the most part since January 02(10B to about 12.5B), but semi-equip bookings are essentially flat. The question is - how much further can chip sales rise without causing some increase in semi-equip spending? The answer is "how much capacity did they build before the bubble crashed?" The average is about $14B.... still above where we are today.

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