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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.36

+2.2%

Dec 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10436)	7/5/2003 9:28:27 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95520

Cary, You make good points and I wouldn't want to argue with you on anything you said in the post, but I do think it makes a big, big difference on when we pick our time periods. Many of the things I said would not be applicable if a different time frame were picked, ie, 1985 to 1995. I am sure if we picked a period like that the growth might have been terrific - after all, the numbers in Gottfried's chart show chip sales in 1995 in the neighborhood of 12B/mo and semi-equip bookings in the neighborhood of 1B/mo - those are big numbers and at some point in time we started from zero. However, I stick by the analysis just presented on the 1997 to the present time frame, from the point of view of a long term(5 years) holder of the stocks in the Group. Just to repeat the numbers again - 6 years back, Group revenue was 13354M and last year it was 16413M for a 4 percent compounded growth rate over the 5 year period. I can't prove it right now, but I suspect if I went back 2 more years to 1995 and made the same calculation for a 7 year period, the compound growth rate would be even lower. Don

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