Hi DJ, I had over-heard some disturbing chit-chats within the past 72 hours:
(a) In one instance, HKMA (HK monetary authority) had supposedly surveyed some big bankers in town regarding the effects of a 10% devaluation of the HKD vs. the USD without specifying time; and
(b) On another occasion, Mainland monetary authorities or rather politicians are considering a 4.2% appreciation of the Yuan vs. the USD by the end of 2003.
I put above (a) and (b) together, and figure the HKD can devalue 13% against the Yuan, and say, 'yikes, what to do?!'
Given that I do not have a lot of HKD cash, I can take out a manageable loan against HK real estates and speculate the proceeds in the mainland equity market by buying shares of companies that import stuff (i.e. oil) into China, or earn money from China without having to export (highways, real estates, food distribution), and global companies whose business are mostly not in China/HK, and/or more gold.
After the storm, I can liberate the speculated funds and bring them back to HK, pay down the loan and put down-payment on another piece of real estate, in time to welcome the mainland tycoons investing in Freedom Rock and setting up their front-offices, even as their back-offices and factories remain on the mainland.
It always feel very peaceful, quiet and relaxed in the eye of a typhoon.
I will take my first trip to Beijing in 10 weeks and will return on Thursday.
Chugs, Jay |
