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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Larry S. who wrote (736)7/6/2003 9:29:47 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (1) of 972
 
Dan, et al,

I didn't see anything of direct significance to PMs in Barron's this week. However, it included Kahn's latest technical analysis for the broad market and, while he is near-term bullish, he sees the bear market resuming in the Fall. And, a bearish move of the market will adversely impact the dollar and that, in turn, should result in an increase in the POG.

The lease rates spoke loud and clear this past week. They headed for new lows as the POG moved up. The last quoted six-month rate was "0" percent. Leased gold may not be the primary source of gold (paper gold may be a major source) that is holding the price down but it is clearly a significant source. And this supports the view that the price is being manipulated. It is interesting to me that Kudlow and other supply siders talk about the importance of getting the POG up to $400.00 to help kill the fear of deflation. I would expect the Administration to have a similar view. If so, it would seem that they should not be supporting the effort to hold the price down and the ESF should not be involved. This appears to be at odds with the views of those who complain about the manipulation.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 07/03, the Barron's GMI was at 519.47, up from the previous week's 501.63. With the POG also up less at 349.40(067/03), the ratio was up significantly at 1.49.

A year ago the ratio was 1.23, which was a major break in the ratio (down from 1.41).

Cheers,
Larry
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