Posted on Sun, Jul. 06, 2003
The Governator?
SCHWARZENEGGER WOULD MAKE RECALL VOTE BLOCKBUSTER EVENT
By Dion Nissenbaum
Mercury News Sacramento Bureau
In a state known as fertile ground for the surreal, it seems only fitting that California's next governor could be a former bodybuilder, ``Dating Game'' contestant and Hollywood actor who wore a leather loincloth in his breakthrough role.
But if all the stars line up, the Terminator is ready to storm California's sedate capital and transform it into an unparalleled political spectacle befitting a state that brought the world Electric Kool-Aid Acid Tests, Burning Man and the American Taliban.
Arnold Schwarzenegger is raring to be California's next governor.
``It's insane,'' said national political analyst Larry Sabato. ``California is nuts.''
In the next few weeks, America's action hero will have a heart-to-heart with his reluctant celebrity wife, weigh the odds with his political consultants and decide whether to use an unprecedented recall drive to oust Gov. Gray Davis as his launching pad for elected office.
While Schwarzenegger is flying around the world to promote his latest film, ``Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines,'' some of California's top political strategists are quietly crafting plans for his campaign.
``Everyone thinks he's the 800-pound gorilla in the race,'' said George Gorton, the veteran strategist who has been grooming Schwarzenegger for this day. Gorton, who has run successful campaigns for Republican Gov. Pete Wilson and former Russian President Boris Yeltsin, has put his old political brain trust on alert.
Team Wilson -- Gorton, former chief of staff Bob White, former communications director Sean Walsh and media consultant Don Sipple -- are set to become Team Arnold.
Wilson himself, the last Republican to win the office, told the Mercury News in an interview that Schwarzenegger would be a formidable leader who could bring charisma, unflagging energy and steadfast convictions to Sacramento.
``I think he has considerable gifts as a candidate,'' said Wilson, who has not taken a position on the recall. ``And I think he'd be a strong governor.''
Wife wary of spotlight
But there is still a huge ``if.''
While Schwarzenegger is sending strong signals that he is eager to run, his Democratic wife -- NBC news correspondent Maria Shriver -- is said to be reluctant to join the fray.
As part of the paparazzi-plagued Kennedy clan that has endured more than its fair share of tragedy, Shriver -- who is the late President John F. Kennedy's niece -- has reason to be wary of the spotlight.
Both Shriver and Schwarzenegger declined to be interviewed, but the actor has been repeatedly asked about his political future while touring the country to promote ``T3.''
``My wife will be a very important partner in this,'' Schwarzenegger said in a recent TV Guide interview. ``She has to give the green light and has to feel comfortable with it because she moved away from Washington to get away from all that kind of stuff. The last thing she may want is to be part of something as a bystander where you get attacked by the media.''
And there is plenty of fodder with which to attack the former Conan the Barbarian.
Schwarzenegger, who turns 56 this month, has been in the public eye since he was 20. His exploits as an ambitious bodybuilder were documented in the 1977 film ``Pumping Iron,'' where he psyched out competitors and is seen smoking what appears to be a joint.
He has admitted to using steroids, been the subject of a scathing unauthorized biography and has made many impolitic comments over the years.
In 1988, he told Playboy that ``neither my mother nor Maria is allowed to go out with me in pants'' because dresses ``are more feminine and sexier.'' In a recent Esquire cover story, Schwarzenegger used crude language in suggesting that many good-looking blonds are dumb.
Two years ago, Premiere magazine ran an unflattering profile that accused Schwarzenegger of groping three women, cheating on his wife and belittling crew members on his movie sets.
Schwarzenegger dismissed the piece as trash, but it became Exhibit A for Garry South, the governor's chief political strategist, who faxed the article to scores of reporters with a snide note about the actor. The faxes sparked angry threats from Schwarzenegger's attorney, but South said the actor can expect much worse if he runs.
``The intensity of the coverage and the nature of the coverage will be white hot,'' South said. ``When you come into politics with a Kennedy in tow, that in and of itself pushes the level of coverage to a much higher level, so it's not just that you have Arnold Schwarzenegger out there who is a mega-star, but his wife is a Kennedy and the combination of those two things will translate into a level and intensity of coverage unlike anything we've ever seen in a political campaign in California, and they have to be ready for it.''
If Schwarzenegger -- and his wife -- can weather the scrutiny, the actor could shake up California's political establishment.
Schwarzenegger has described himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate who supports abortion rights and ``sensible gun control.'' While his positions on most issues aren't well-established, that basic set of views has provided the winning approach for the last Republicans who have held the state's top office.
Time ripe for revolt?
And with California facing a mind-numbing $38 billion budget gap that has created a predictable partisan stalemate in Sacramento, voters may be in the mood to revolt.
The budget crisis has helped fuel California's startling recall drive, which appears poised to make history as the first of 32 attempts to evict a governor to make the ballot. Unless Davis and his allies find a way to throw a legal wrench in the works, the governor could face a recall vote this fall or in March.
If it makes the ballot, the recall would first ask voters if they want to toss Davis from office, and then would offer a list of alternatives. That formula, coupled with a necessarily brief campaign, would give Schwarzenegger -- with his superhero name recognition and vast personal fortune -- an edge. And it would allow him to circumvent a Republican primary in which his moderate views on social issues -- along with his quip about the Clinton impeachment drama that he was ``ashamed to call myself a Republican'' -- might not appeal to the conservatives who often hold the key to GOP primary victories.
Even without a primary, Schwarzenegger is likely to face other Republican hopefuls. Rep. Darrell Issa, the conservative San Diego-area Republican who has spent more than $1.2 million to jump-start the recall effort, says he is eager to debate Schwarzenegger.
``I'm afraid to arm-wrestle him,'' Issa said. ``I'm not afraid to enter into the realm of ideas with him.''
Long, slow buildup
Schwarzenegger has been preparing to run for political office the same way he stormed both the bodybuilding world and Hollywood.
``I learned that you have to establish yourself in an area where there is no one else,'' he said in a 1988 Playboy interview. ``Then you have to create a need for yourself, build yourself up. While their empire goes on, slowly, without realizing it, build your own little fortress. And all of the sudden it's too late for them to do anything about it.''
Early in his career, Schwarzenegger dismissed various entreaties to run for office and said he wanted to focus on making movies. As he reached the top of his game, Schwarzenegger began to tinker in politics. He served as a physical fitness ambassador for the first President Bush and former Gov. Wilson, backed George W. Bush for president and, most recently, spearheaded a successful ballot measure meant to create more after-school programs.
Broad coalition
Those moves, especially last year's Proposition 49 campaign run by Gorton, were widely viewed as laying the foundation for a run for office.
During the initiative battle, Schwarzenegger built a broad, bipartisan coalition to support Proposition 49 and won over many skeptics.
``I don't have any doubts about his ability to run an effective campaign for governor and to govern if he wins,'' said John Hein, political director of the California Teachers Association, which was once a top Davis backer before a very public feud with the governor. ``I think he would be a formidable candidate and people would make a mistake in writing him off.''
Jan Domene, past president of the California PTA, said Schwarzenegger put his Hollywood training to good use for Proposition 49.
``Because he's a movie star, he stayed very much to the script,'' she said. ``He follows the direction of his director. That's what he does. He's an actor.''
For now, Schwarzenegger is coyly deflecting questions about his next role. Gorton said he expects Schwarzenegger to make a decision later this month or in early August -- if the recall makes the ballot.
``Arnold Schwarzenegger never lost a thing in his life, and he doesn't think he's going to start now,'' he said. ``I think he's right: He will win if he runs.''
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