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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 316.79-3.6%1:09 PM EST
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (6404)7/8/2003 11:17:33 AM
From: runes  Read Replies (1) of 25522
 
<<"And then that demand decelerates..." Not necessarily>>
...Yes it is possible to over produce a supply while the demand continues to accelerate. But that would be a pretty rare occurance and probably wouldn't produce much more than a hiccup in prices. (After all the ACCELERATING demand would catch up pretty quickly once people backed off adding new supply.
...As a practical matter, the major busts always get triggered by the economy - the late '80's stock market "crash", the Asian contagion, the bursting "bubble". I can't remember what happened back in '85 but it did hit the whole economy. There may have been a small one caused by DRAM oversupply in '95.

<<...but one of the greatest manias in investment history ...>>
<<The bubble and its aftermath changed the typical monotonically increasing character of semi unit demand...>>
...It seems to me that you are saying the bubble was an atypical phenomena but you are saying that the decrease of semi unit demand (caused by the bubble) is a permanent effect.
===> Why wouldn't it be an atypical effect of a an atypical event?

For the record, I am actually a bit concerned about the other possibility - that the bubble-collapse is not atypical. That it represents the result of over emphasizing the free market (cranking up the gain on the controller) without adding stronger controls to dampen the oscillations.
...Just something to think about....
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