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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 296.74+1.8%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Pink Minion who wrote (10544)7/11/2003 2:48:25 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) of 95487
 
No way can demand growth match the "doubling of supply (transistors) every 18 months." This means the other half of the industry gets crushed from the Law.

That seems to be true, but is why prices keep getting pushed down thus spawning new applications that we cannot even dream of. It seems to balance out somewhat making for a decent long term growth rate and excellent profitability for the most successful semi and equipment manufacturers.

Are you saying that "it's different this time" as in "technology has suddenly matured" or "it's just too costly to build new fabs any more"? There is certainly a healthy amount of "creative destruction" taking place in the industry. But it seems to be a game of winner take all and I see no reason at this point to assume we are on a permanent revenue plateau, hence identification and investment in the best of the lot seems quite rewarding.
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