RE: "ELON"
I will try to listen to the conference calls of 6 stocks that I don't own: CREE, MCHP, MRVL, ELON, KOPN, BRCM.
ELON has been in industrial networks. I don't know if they will expand further or disappear.
RE: "valuation concerns"
You can't find a group like AMAT, ASML, KLAC, NVLS in any other industry. First, they have an incredible track record. Second, they bring incomparable value added to their industry and the world. Third, they have sustainable competitive advantages and significant barriers to entry. If the industry becomes less cyclical because chip makers make a more diverse prodoct and manage cap ex more prudently, then it becomes more a growth industry and less a growth cyclical industry. PEs have tended to get lower near the cyclical tops. Growth PEs can be higher. Also, an exit discipline might be less critical. If chip unit volumes continue to grow
throughout the whole GDP cycle, non-commodity chips and equips can hold most of their price level. |
