Mish:
This last trip just emphasized for me what a total mess things are in the US. I spent much of my time digging into the transportation systems. Trucks, package delivery, air cargo, ships, etc. And surprise, surprise,... virtually across the board, there has been no improvement in the amount of goods moved. Got inventory headaches?
Of course, as is always the case, there are small pockets of genuine improvement, but they were very much in the minority. In general terms, things are not improving in any consequential way (as one would expect if a real "second half recovery" was coming our way). Unless I am missing something (and remember that of necessity the sampling that I do is very narrow), the second half recovery is a complete Wall St. fabrication.
A second observation is that PC and cell phone sales are not accelerating in any way. And without this, a "rebound" in semi sales is simply a dream. Semi product prices continue to drift along well below the "cost-to-produce" and given the continuing massive excess global capacity and monumental inventory problems, I cannot see how any form of rebound is possible, at least as far as out one might reasonably predict.
More later.
Best, Earlie |
