Bob Brinker: Bad Calls & Good Calls Message Board

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Pastimes : Bob Brinker: Bad Calls & Good Calls

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To: TREND1 who wrote (9)	7/12/2003 9:18:14 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) of 133

Larry re<<<<<Maybe posts like yours can lead to methods of when to follow Bob Brinker and when not to follow Bob Brinker ?>>>>> I think the simple answer answer to that is a no brainer and a strategy Bob has already pretty much adopted. It is his long term timing model that has been outstanding in calling turns in the market. It should be realized that if in retrospect a few years down the road we are indeed in a secular bear right now as Bob and others believe, than this March call and any possible success in getting out near the top of this cyclical bull will be a remarkable achievement. Even during the bull his calls like at the bottom in 1998 that you can not afford to be out of the market for even one day which was followed by an explosive rally, was undoubtedly because his long term timing model was screaming extremely bullish. I doubt Bob will make any more countertrend bear market trading calls ever again. Even the first one which was somewhat successful in I think July 2000 was so unwieldy that while I made some money on it most probably did not. One reason for this is that he has too large a following. I think he made that one over the radio and if I recall correctly Monday AM the QQQ opened with a massive spike as if the specialist saw all these buy orders waiting in the morning, probably knew about a "guru" call and opened it up so high that no one got in at decent price. The only reason I made some money at that time was that I had picked up what Bob said in advance and thought the counter trend rally ingredients had fallen into place a couple of days before the actual call. As to the failing call in October I think that Bob was just one of numerous sharp traders who learned the hard way that the bear was going to be so ferocious that the usual technical factors calling for a big bounce turned out to be largely non-operative. So what made Bob an outstanding market timer was his long term model. The only changes he made in his model portfolios were one that resulted from his long term timing model. Even this he had to compromise a bit on out of prudence going only to 65% cash instead of the 100% cash he had in the past suggested he would go to if his model turned negative. With people with massive capital gains built up over the 90's and him running some institutional money in the BJ group, he obviously decided this was more realistic than the "Sell Everything" bulletin that came out of Elaine Garzarelli e.g. during the bull and proved dead wrong as well. And that I believe is the other factor in the 65% cash decision versus 100%. He knew it could be possible his model would be wrong. So bottom line I would follow any long term timing signal he gives and also realize we are at a higher risk situation right now given we are probably in a secular bear versus the secular bull of the 1990s Marc

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