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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: KyrosL who wrote (105028)7/12/2003 9:36:19 PM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
Hi KyrosL; Re: "This Debka description sounds like a complete fantasy to me. It looks to me that the guerilla movement in Iraq is rapidly losing steam and will be defeated in months if not weeks."

Yeah. Debka was much more accurate back a year ago, when they were talking about how Iraq was going to be conquered by 3,000 US troops (or whatever it was), LOL.

It must be a bit, um, disconcerting, to see Debka recognizing the problems in Iraq.

Re: "It looks to me that the guerilla movement in Iraq is rapidly losing steam and will be defeated in months if not weeks."

I'm sure you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, LOL. To quote Debka again:

The US troop withdrawal from the Iraqi town of Falluja only 50 km west of Baghdad on Friday, July 1, is the first major American military retreat since going to war against Iraq on March 18, 2003. [Bilow: All Debka is doing here is calling a spade a spade.]
...
It is more than probable that Saddam and his two sons are very much present in underground fortresses built after the 1991 Gulf War and conducting the current campaign against US troops in person, assisted by officers who commanded the Special Republican Guards Divisions in the March-April War.
[Bilow: I think that this is a fantasy. My guess is that Saddam is keeping quiet by hiding in somebody's basement.]
...
A senior Western intelligence source familiar with the Iraq scene confided to DEBKA-Net-Weekly this week: “I don’t want to criticize ambassador Bremer’s management,” he said. “It essentially represents policy dictated from Washington and is based on a rule set in concrete: The US administration may not recruit ex-soldiers who belonged to any of Saddam’s elite units for military and civil administration posts. The effect of those restrictions,” the source pointed out, “was to provide the former Iraqi ruler with a potential reserve force of up to one million trained and disaffected combatants who might be ready to fight for his comeback. Half are ex-army men, half members of the ruling Baath party which Bremer dissolved.”
[Bilow: This is probably what is going on, though the numbers aren't anywhere near so large.]
...
It is estimated that between 12,000 and 14,000 men have begun drawing salaries against Saddam’s account.
[Bilow: I think this is a Debka fantasy.]
...
DEBKAfile’s analysts suggest that the US initiative to start handing over power to Iraqis may have come too late now that the deposed ruler appears to be setting up a military presence in the heart of the country.
[Bilow: Kind of depressing, but probably accurate.]
...
#reply-19105268

-- Carl
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