many surprises are due for the markets next week..this should tell the tale going forward
here's my newsletter from 2 weeks ago.
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED JUNE 29TH 2003
"YELLOW FLASHING ALERT"
Hello out there in La la Land this fine non rainy weekend here in good ole Philly...Unreal folks..it's actually a bright hot and sunny day to beat the band...I think that cloud has finally removed itself from over my head<g> And good riddance too...
Gee whiz Batman that could have gotten anyone depressed right? Well I'm feeling better, doc checkup was fine, and what could be better than to look forward to the summer of sun and fun to begin. Trust me everyone I am ready for it in a BIG way...Oh yeah I was not depressed, just felt tired, but the blood work is fine.
Look here folks..While I am not an alarmist, as you already know. I am seeing signs of weakness in the P&F indicators that are alerting me to trouble ahead. I'm seeing that those ridiculous tops in all the Bullish Percents for all my indicators are finally beginning to pullback here. Some have already reversed back down into O's the OTC and NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 10 week moving averages...Now here's the 1st key to the Kingdom.."IF" the Hi Lo Indexes of both the NYSE and OTC reverse down too, that would be a serious negative for me short term. It would simply mean that you and me would need to identify those stocks, ETF's and options that are NOT performing like they did, and take action right here and now over the next 2-3 weeks...
I am not going over those choices again..You know the drill here...I am not calling a top either, i'll leave that to the streets crowd of GURU's out there...It's almost impossible to do it anyway...Just take evasive action to protect your profits and assets..As we go thru this newsletter i'll have what I call action points for you to set alerts and watch what happens from there...I am demanding that you take action soon. Do NOT wait for me to say BAIL OUT...Use your heads why wait..Heck I could be wrong here, but I doubt it..I've said this before, this distribution top will take plenty of time. So don't go out and dump everything all at once. Use hard stops that will let you participate if we decide to try for the summit one more time..It's not out of the question. Remember this too, next week is a 4 day trading week. With low volume summer trading and people leaving early Thursday headed for the beaches and camp grounds<g> NO I do not camp..hehehehehe. It should be interesting for us all to watch this type of action. i THINK IT'S USUALLY BULLISH THE WEEK JUST BEFORE THE 4TH...
I ask you to be nimble here...This is scalp mode folks..Back to basics in a BIG way for right now..I am almost out of everything, and can say my trading has been a bit off...But I will extricate myself looking for a days pay each day...It's fun profitable and can make us all rich. So this weeks mantra is scalp scalp scalp, especially during this time of flux during the topping process..I believe that the potential for a major BULL Trap is lurking out there...You will not get caught in that...I'll be hostile if you do get caught leaning to the TOO bullish side..You're on the wrong side of the street here...While I'm staying directly in the middle till the main indicators roll over meaning the NYSE and OTC reverse into O's...this is that area of market tops that are so volatile intraday and intraweek..We've seen a slew of intraday buying climaxes. Not good if you're long..and only good if you're scalping OK??..GOT THAT?!!!!
For those of you that have not shorted before or are afraid to short...Watch the room action when stocks get at or near upper RESISTANCE LINES OVER HEAD...See if "sellers" attack that area once more. Thats your cue to hit it short too. TA or Technical Trading is a must..It's does not always work, but it's the only way to go. We do not throw darts folks. Know those stocks we watch each and everyday. We do not need a ton of stocks to trade..Learn the movements of 2-3-4 stocks and see what happens at supports and resistance areas. This will keep you sharp and ready to make that trade. Always keeping in the back of your mind I'm in here for a "Days Pay" only...no more no less..Greed will kill you..stow it away and leave it there forever.
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OK LET'S CHECK ALL THE INDEXES AND THOSE IMPORTANT BULLISH PERCENTS(BP).
DJIA---8900 THE DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) BREAK DOWN. THEN THE 1ST TARGET THE 38.2% RETRACE DOWN AND THE MIDDLE OF THAT 10 WEEK TRADING BAND. THIS IS GOOD S (SUPPORT). THE 200 EMA ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART (DCC) IS 8500. ON THE UPSIDE 9150 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP(3BXRVUP) AND MAYBE WE TEST TO OLD HIGHS. 9400 THE DOUBLE TOP(DT) B/O(BREAKOUT).
NOW AT THIS POINT..THE NYSEBP IS AT 75.57% AND STRONG. THE NYSE PERCENT OF 10 IS IN O'S..IF THE HI LO INDEX REVERSES DOWN THEN THAT WILL MEAN TROUBLE..IT'S CURRENTLY AT 94.22% DOWN FROM 98%..BUT HERE'S THE CAVEAT THAT 94% BREAK IS THE 3BXRVDN...THATS A CERTAIN WAKE UP CALL...AS BOTH SHORT TERM NYSE INDICATORS WILL BE IN O'S...I'KK CALL IT WHEN IT HAPPENS WITHOUT A DOUBT..
COMPX---STILL LOOKS OK AT THIS JUNCTURE. WE HAD A DT AT 1680 ON THIS PULLBACK(PB) IS SITTING RIGHT ON THE 20 EMA ON THE DCC CHART. A BREAK OF 1620 WILL REVERSE THIS INDEX DOWN MAKING A LOWER HIGH. AT 1650. NOW "IF" THIS INDEX PRINTS 1580 I WOULD EXIT ALL LONGS..THAT A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK. ON THE OTHER HAND(OTOH). THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WE COULD TEST THE TOP 1 MORE TIME.
LOOKING AT THE OCT BP IT'S STILL OK AT 67.46% THE OTC % OF 10 IS IN O'S AT 75.97 DOWN FROM 88%. 82% WOULD REVERSE THIS INDICATOR BACK UP...THE HI LO INDEX IS SITTING AT 95.80 DOWN FROM THE 98% TOP BUT IT STILL NEEDS 92% ON A PRINT BASIS TO REVERSE DOWN...SO NOT TOO BAD HERE YET...TECH HAS HELD VERY WELL HERE.
SOX---RIGHT NOW IT'S UNDERNEATH THE 20 EMA DCC. IT'S ALREADY GIVEN 2 SELL SIGNALS ON P&F. THERE IS GOOD S AT 350 RIGHT AT THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE (BSL) AT 350. 370 THE 3BXRVUP. IT'S ALREADY TOUCHED THAT 50% RETRACE BACK DOWN. THE BULLISH PERCENT FOR THE SEMIS AT AT 73.77% 72% IS THE 3BXREVERSAL BACK DOWN...THAT WOULD BE A HUGH NEGATIVE TO ME. BUT AS WE SEE IT'S NOT THERE YET. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE.
NDX---EITHER IT'S PRECARIOUS OR BULLISH THIS WEEK SHOULD TELL US ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. A BREAK OF 1180 IS A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK AND "NOT" GOOD. THE BPNDX IS AT 76% ALREADY DOWN FROM 90% IN FULL RETREAT. BUT LET'S WATCH AND SEE. RIGHT HERE WE HAVE THE 38.2% RETRACE AT 1170..AND THE PROJECTION POTENTIAL OF 1250.
BTK---2 CONSECUTIVE SELL SIGNALS ON P&F. 2 LOWER TOPS TOO. NEEDS TO PRINT 460 TO CHANGE THE TREND BACK TO BULLISH. ANY BREAK OF 425 IS NEGATIVE. WE'VE ALREADY HAD A 1/3 RETRACE DOWN ON THE BP FROM 76% TOP 58.82%. 66% IS THE 3BXRVUP AND 56 KEEPS IT MOVING LOWER. I'LL BE SETTING ALERTS ON ALL THESE INDEXS AND BP'S...
SPX---NEGATIVE CHART PATTERN HERE FOLKS FOR MY FAVORITE INDICATOR. IT'S CALLED A TRIPLE TOP FAILURE PATTERN...YOU BREAK JUST 1 BOX ABOVE THE TRIPLE TOP AND IMMEDIATELY REVERSE DOWN, THIS IS A REVERSE OF A SHAKEOUT PATTERN. IT'S CURRENTLY SITTING ON THE 20 EMA DCC. 970 IS NEGATIVE..990 THE 3BXRVUP, 1020 WOULD BE AWESOME...THE SPX BP IS AT 79% DOWN FROM 82% AND 76% IS THE 3BXRVDN...CURRENTLY THE WEEKLY MOMENTUM IS NEGATIVE TOO...NOT A GREAT PICTURE...
SPU3 THE FUTURES---THIS INDEX HAD A BUYING CLIMAX ON FRIDAY..IT TOUCHED A DT AT 988 THEN PROMPTLY ROLLED OVER AND DOWN TO HIT 972...NOW GET THIS..968 AND RUN FOR COVER. THATS A SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK...BIG NEGATIVE FOR THE WHOLE MARKET COMPRENDE'?
VIX---THIS THING IS JUST LOLLYGAGGING AROUND AT THE LOWER AREAS AT 21+...SEEMS TO ME THEY MAY TAKE THIS WHOLE MARKET TO THE BRINK AND THEN JAMB IT UP TO TRAP THE BULLS ONE MORE TIME...IF THE VIX PRINTS 20 THAT WOULD BE THE "TELL" THE FINAL NAIL..I WILL NOT CHASE THAT RUN UP..ONLY TRADE IT LIKE A PRO...AND SO WILL YOU...
SO IN CONCLUSION: THE MARKETS LOOK TOPPY TO ME..INDICATORS ARE PULLING BACK. STOCKS ARE GETTING JAMMED THEN FALLING. IF SEVERAL INDEXES AND BP'S TURN DOWN WE'LL BE SHORT THE MARKET IN A HURRY AND BE OUT OF ALL LONGS...FOCUS HERE EVERYONE..THIS IS A CRITICAL TIME FOR ALL OF US. LET'S BE NIMBLE TRADERS. ALSO..NOTHING WOULD SURPRISE ME IF THEY TRIED TO SEND THIS UP FOR ONE MORE LAST GASP SHOT TO THE STARS...WE WILL ONLY TRADE IT PERIOD!...COULD BE A MAJOR BULL TRAP SET UP...I SAID "COULD"
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OK HERE'S THIS WEEKS WATCH LIST...WARNING SEASON IS UPON US..IF YOU HOLD ANYTHING OVERNIGHT IT'S STUPID..NOT HERE AND NOW...WE ARE SCALPERS AND GO TO CASH EACH NIGHT..THIS WILL KEEP YOU RESTING WELL IN THE EVENING, SLEEPING LIKE A BABY AND ANXIOUS TO GET UP AND TRADE EACH DAY. DO NOT MAKE ANY MISTAKES RIGHT HERE..IT COULD BE BRUTAL IF YOU TRY FOR THAT LAST OUNCE OF GAIN..GREED KILLS LIKE SPEED KILLS.
EBAY---ONE TOUGH STOCK FOLKS...IT'S FLOWN UP FROM THE LOW 60'S RIGHT TO 104 IN A POWERFUL TREND. A TRIPLE TOP FAILURE PATTERN GETS STARTED AT THAT 3BXRVDN AT 99.00 SO BE WARY OF THAT...106 WOULD CONIFRM THIS B/O---103.00 THE BTL---101.75 THE SST
YHOO--- THEY LOVE THIS STOCK AND ALL THE INETS, THE INET SECTOR BP IS STILL SO STRONG...THIS STOCK IS STILL ON THAT HIGH POLE AT THE TOP(100%) OVERBOUGHT AT THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND(10WK)..UNREAL...32.70 THE BTL---31.70 THE SST
AMZN---I KNOW IT'S GOING TO HAVE SOLID EARNINGS THIS MONTH..BUT THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY KEEP IT UP HERE HEADING INTO THAT DATE?...36.90 THE BTL---35.80 THE SST
NTES--FOLKS JUST LOOK AT THE INTRADAY TRADING OF THIS WILD STOCK ON FRIDAY LOW TO HIGH? NOW THIS IS FOR US...SOLID CHART FOR THIS ASIAN INET...34.65 THE BTL---33.40 THE SST
SOHU---CHART IS VERY INTERESTING..TOUCHED THE HIGHS AT 35 ONLY TO PLUNGE DOWN TO EXCELLENT S AT 26 AND FAST TOO..IT'S JUST NOW TRYING TO REGAIN THAT TOP...31.90 THE BTL---30.90 THE SST...29 IS THE 3 BXRVDN AND WOULD SIGNAL THAT 32 IS THE LOWER HIGH...
SINA---HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BEARISH SIGNAL REVERSAL IF IT CAN BREAKOUT AT 19...THE CHART IS DEVELOPING. THE QUESTION IS THIS, CAN THESE CHINA INETS HOLDUP?...18.10 THE BTL---17.00 THE SST...
SNDK---AMAZING STOCK TO TRADE BOTH INTRADAY AND ON THE LONG SIDE FOR MONTHS NOW..YOU ACTUALLY HAD NO FEAR OF LOSING MONEY BY HOLDING OVERNIGHT..THE CHART IS STILL BULLISH RIGHT NOW. 41.75 THE BTL---40.70 THE SST--WE CALLED THIS LONG IN THE MID TEENS..THE JULY 15 CALLS...GOSH!!!
BRCM---BROKE OUT OF MAJOR R AT 22 AND HIT THE HIGHS AT 28 STRAIGHT UP..WE ALL LOVED TO TRADE THIS ONE...IT'S FINALLY REVERSED DOWN OFF THAT HIGH POLE...SITTING AT THE 20 EMA DCC...25.00 THE BTL---23.80 THE SST...TAKE THAT SHORT...
KLAC---STILL IN A SOLID CHART FORMATION SO FAR EVEN WITH THE SOX ROLLING OVER HERE...LOOKS LIKE A DESCENDING WEDGE TO ME ON THE DCC...COULD GO EITHER WAY...WATCH THE SEMIS FOR ANY WARNINGS SHORTLY...46.90 THE BTL---45.90 THE SST...TAKE IT SHORT THERE...SCALP SHORT THAT IS...WEDGES LIKE THAT USUALLY BREAK OUT TO THE UPSIDE....
QLGC---IDENTICAL CHART LIKE KLAC..THE BOBBSIE TWINS?<G>...DESCENDING WEDGE HERE...48.60 THE BTL---47.50 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 46 THIS STOCK WILL FALL...
MRVL---KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A BIG TIME B/O ON THIS STOCKS CHART AT 35...IT'S HOLDING UP WELL AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF THE SOX MOVING LOWER...IT'S ON A RS BUY SIGNAL TOO...SEEMS A BIT SAFER TO ME...33.85 THE BTL---32.85 THE SST...I LIKE IT LONG MARKET WILLING...
LLY---THIS DRUG STOCK HAS MOVED REALLY WELL WITH ALL THE BIG CAP DRUGS MRK-PFE ETC...NICE TRADER TOO...68.65 THE BTL---67.60 THE SST
MO---THIS STOCK GOT DEEPLY OVERSOLD BELOW THE BOTTOM OF THE 10WK TRADING BAND AT 28 BUCKS...THIS IS WHAT I MEAN WHEN STOCKS OR INDEXES GET TO EXTREMES..AND OF COURSE IT WAS ALL BASED ON "NEWS" OR SHOULD I SAYS "NOISE"?..NOW IT EXPLODED STRAIGHT UP TO TOUCH 46..NOT TOO SHABBY HUH?...45.70 THE BTL---44.55 THE SST...HAD A PERFECT SOLID LONG TRIGGER ON FRIDAY GOOD FOR A POINT PLUS!!!!!
NXTL---WHAT A LITTLE POWERHOUSE..THE STREET LOVES THIS STOCK AFTER IT BASED FOR ABOUT 4 MONTHS IT BROKE A TRIPLE TOP AT 16 RAN RIGHT UP TO 19 LIKE NOTHING ON HUGH VOLUME...WE ALL TRADED THIS ONE IT WAS SWEET...19.00 THE BTL---17.95 THE SST...
ICOS---WILD SWINGS INTRADAY LATELY BECAUSE OF THE DOWNWARD PRESSURE OF THE BTK..THIS STOCK IS PRETTY STRONG SO FAR...SITTING ON THE 20 EMA ON THE DCC...TOUCHED THE 38.2% RETRACE DOWN AND NOW?..JUST DID A 3BXRVUP...38.10 THE BTL---36.95 THE SST..I'LL TAKE IT LONG...
PDLI---VERY DISAPPOINTING TRADE FOR US ALL...I DO NOT WANT TO DOUBLE DOWN AND ADD TO THE LOSSES...NEGATIVE DCC CHART AND THE P&F IS NOT BETTER...TERRIBLE TRADE PERIOD...15.00 THE BTL---14.10 THE SST...
IMCLE---THE CHART LOOKS LIKE DEATH TO ME...QUICK SELLERS ON THE LAST 3 BOX UP..MADE A LOWER TOP..NEGATIVE IN MANY WAYS...WE CAN SCALP THIS EASILY...33.75 THE BTL---32.80 THE SST...THERE'S A GAP TO FILL AT 32...
TARO---NOTHING WRONG WITH THIS CHART FOLKS...IN THE DRUG SECTOR AND HOLDING UP WELL..TRADES NICELY INTRADAY TOO...56.20 THE BTL---55.15 THE SST
QCOM---JUST RAN IN TO THE DREADED BRL LINE..THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE...I CAN SAY THE DCC IS FORMING A POTENTIAL CUP HERE..NEEDS MORE WORK THO...I AM SEEING THAT IF QCOM BREAKS 40 IT WOULD BE AN AWESOME B/O AREA...I DOUBT IT GETS CLOSE...36.60 THE BTL---35.45 THE SST...BUT ONE NEVER KNOWS<G>...
MERQ---WE ALWAYS TRADE THIS AT SOME POINT...BROKE A DB AT 40 RECENTLY AFTER A NICE RUN UP...SITTING AT THE 40 EMA DCC...DEFINITELY LOOKS LOWER TO ME...39.65 THE BTL---38.55 THE SST...
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OK FOLKS THATS IT FOR THIS NEWSLETTER. LET'S GET BACK ON TRACK..I WANT EVERYONE SCALPING FOR A DAYS PAY...NO EXCEPTIONS...BOOK IT AND PUT IT AWAY...WE'VE HAD A GREAT RUN...CAN WE GO HIGHER, I GUESS SO..BUT I'LL PLAY IT DAY BY DAY...KEEP STRICTLY FOCUSED ON WHAT YOU'RE DOING WATCH THE INDEXES AND THE TRIGGERS FOR THOSE STOCKS AND BP'S..SET ALERTS...
I'LL BE SENDING OUT A LIST OF STOCKS IN SECTORS TO SHORT AS SOON AS WE GET TO THAT POINT..I WILL NOT SPECULATE OR GUESS...DO NOT FORGET TO USE ETF'S LIKE THE BBH & SMH ETC THEY WORK WELL FOLKS...WE'LL BE TALKING ABOUT THE RYDEX FUNDS AS WELL...
I WILL BE OUT EARLY IN THE AM FOR MY SON GETTING A BUILDING PERMIT FOR HIM, THEN OUT AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AROUND 2.30 FOR MY FINAL SELECTIONS FOR MY HOME I'M BUILDING...
ALERT: THE PSSWORD FOR THIS WEEK...............scalper.....lower case one word...
Warmest regards to you all
jerry
jerry olson
www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com
jerry.olson@verizon.net |
