Hi Carl. The administration is showing flexibility in Iraq, and this bodes well, IMO. The Neocon dreams are being replaced by pragmatic policies, driven by 2004 reelection considerations. In the last few weeks we have seen:
1. An admission that the American forces in Iraq will not be reduced, as originally planned, and the $4 billion monthly tab will persist for the foreseeable future. This is good news since Iraq needs lots of money. Unfortunately, this money will not come from Iraqi oil anytime soon; it will have to come from American taxpayer pockets.
2. The disastrous decision to dismiss the Iraqi army without pay has been reversed. The army will keep getting their salaries "indefinitely". Good move by Bremer.
3. The just announced Iraqi governing Council has real power, and will become the de-facto interim government in Iraq. I very much doubt that Bremer will do anything the Council does not want: the press and Iraqi public opinion will be watching like hawks, and Bremer surely does not want anymore fiascos on his hands.
I expect the insurgency to die down soon and Iraq to evolve into a semi-democracy, with most of our troops out of there by election time next year -- dreams of controlling Iraqi oil and increasing Iraqi oil output substantially will go down the drain. That's what politics dictates, and Bush has proven, in his two and a half years in office, that his presidency is driven by politics more than any other, far surpassing Clinton's in this respect.
Kyros |
