Bob Brinker: Bad Calls & Good Calls Message Board

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Pastimes : Bob Brinker: Bad Calls & Good Calls

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To: marc ultra who wrote (35)	7/14/2003 12:07:42 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) of 133

I am going to post now a bunch of info that is my opinion of historical events that responds to a whole bunch of posts, some directed at me and some not. It gives some historical info and perspective as I see it for those who are asking a lot of confused questions about his past market calls e.g. on the radio versus in the newsletter. A major portion of Bob's radio show until recent times was involved in specifically discussing the market. It was the type of show many including myself would be listening closely to for the full 6 hours. The reason why he no longer makes any market calls or weekly market thoughts is that he got very upset with the fact that some people, who will remain nameless since I'm not looking to start a controversy, began to sell and profit off a new newsletter that was a transcript of the radio show with some commentary and views added. Bob considered this a direct copyright violation of ABC radio and himself which had not given permission for his use. When the activity continued despite some urging and attempts to stop it, Bob changed the format of his radio show where he no longer discussed his market thoughts in detail but went to a relatively drab format that answers a lot of general financial questions as it is to this day. there was even a problem when he more recently posted the newsletter as a PDF file for subscribers in response to constant valid complaints about differing times the mailed newsletter was received by different people. Just about the first time he posted the password accessed PDF newsletter someone immediately used a translator and splattered a text copy on the web. As a result Bob now waits a couple of days after the newsletter gets mailed before posting the PDF letter for subscribers. As to the 2000 sell call, it is true Bob danced around the issue calling it an asset allocation shift before finally saying his model had turned bearish. I made a lengthy post at the time giving my views on why he was a bit ambiguous then. One problem was he had said for years that if his model went bearish he would go to 100% cash as for as all US stock market money.Since he remained bullish and fully invested throughout virtually all of the 1990s the issue had become rather academic. Briefly, he realized that his proclaimed strategy of selling 100% US equities on a bear call was problematic. The call came after the biggest bull market in history and many people had tons of capital gains built up in taxable accounts. He was also running along with Sheldon Jacobs institutional money that was supposed to follow any market timing decision of Bob's. Further there had been a bad call earlier in the bull by guru Elaine Garzarelli who sent fax and telephone alerts out screaming "SELL ALL US EQUITIES". It turned into a horrible fiasco for her as many of her retail newsletter clients dumped everything willy nilly regardless of tax implications with angry calls to business media outlets about her as well. In light of all these facts Bob did not use a sell all declaration as he had said he would but came up with a strategy where he called it an asset allocation shift and for a short time carefully evaded saying his model turned bearish. Some point a bit later he said his model had in fact turned bearish at the time of his call and gave details. Personally while he made it confusing initially, I had no doubt his model had turned bearish. It was obvious because he used the point that there was something like 80% probability downside and a small percent of probable upside. While I don't recall the exact figures he used on the show I definitely recalled them as the same figures he had previously given as what it would mean for his model to become bearish. Again a short term later he finally explicitly said his model had turned bearish at the time of call. So someone can and I'm sure will interpret his 2000 call any way they want but I have no doubt it was a bear call and the asset allocation wording nonsense was used to get out of a tricky problem of not calling for 100% cash in US equity allocation. On another issue Larry responded to my post about earning over 50% on Bob's portfolio inclusion and recommendation of an Asia ex Japan fund and a huge return on the International fund at the time, by saying it's bullshit unless I give the name of the fund and the dates yada yada. I'll restrain myself and not use the profanity I feel like using in my response. If you consider it bullshit then fine. Why don't you just ignore it. Guess what, I have no inclination to search in some dust and bug infested storage area to find if I have a paper copy of a 1993 Marketimer. I prefer not to get an allergy or asthma attack to satisfy your need for specifics. I will however tell you I recall the funds were T Rowe Price New Asia and Montgomery International Growth fund. I am sure there are a lot of very happy long term Marketimer subscribers who remember them well. Marc

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