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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (249885)7/14/2003 12:42:18 PM
From: David Lawrence  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
NOAA is starting to adjust their thinking. The probability numbers (column E) have shifted away from Brownsville and towards Galveston/Freeport in the last 24 hours.


000
WTNT74 KNHC 141433
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

27.8N 94.5W 42 1 X X 43 PORT O CONNOR TX 21 6 1 X 28
28.3N 96.3W 22 5 1 X 28 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 10 10 2 1 23
28.6N 98.2W 6 13 3 2 24 BROWNSVILLE TX 2 7 3 2 14
MMSO 238N 982W X X 2 3 5 GULF 28N 91W 11 1 X X 12
MMTM 222N 979W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 93W 55 X X X 55
NEW IBERIA LA 3 3 X 1 7 GULF 28N 95W 34 1 X X 35
PORT ARTHUR TX 14 4 X 1 19 GULF 27N 96W 18 4 1 X 23
GALVESTON TX 24 2 X X 26 GULF 25N 96W 2 5 2 2 11
FREEPORT TX 26 2 X X 28

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE
C FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED
D FROM 7AM WED TO 7AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN
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