"Do I have to read it all?"
Nope.
Folks are bullish just about everywhere. They don't seem to
be the least concerned with any the obvious negatives that
keep being reported about the economy, earnings,
visibility, IT & Cap Ex spending. Higher production costs
(PPI), oil remaining near $30 a barrel & the inability to
raise prices due to excess capacity isn't raising concerns
about the negative effect this will be on earnings. CPI is
not seen as a problem even though higher costs for food,
gas, health care, state & local taxes, etc., are eating
into consumer spending. Growing unemployment is now being
spun as a signal that the economy is about to improve. I
don't hear anyone express concern that it could mean the
ecomomy might be slowing.
Like I said, the talking heads were saying last month that
Q2 doesn't matter. If that's not bubble talk, what is?.
They said that now it all depends on significantly improved
guidance & visibility for the 2nd half of the year. So far
that hasn't happened either, yet the market keeps ramping.
No worries (or shall I say - no 'Wall of Worry')! AG will
keep printing $$$ & cutting rates. Ya! That's the ticket!
Nothing but blue skies as far as the eye can see.
BTW, I realize your trading does not depend on current or
near term fundamentals. Normally, mine doesn't either.
It's just that every time I decided to quit fighting the
trend & join the bulls, we'd get more economic reports
confirming that the economy was headed toward recession or
at best, slow GDP growth. Those consistently poor
fundamentals meant there wasn't going to be dramatic
earnings growth any time soon. I just could not overlook
the ever growing disconnect between the relentless ramping
of equities prices & the lack of confirming fundamentals
just about across the board. I kept fighting the trend as
it seemed to me that I wasn't the only one who could see
how bad things were getting.
Obviously I got it wrong.
However, I'm not inclined to join the bull camp now either.
I wouldn't go long in here with someone else's money.
That must mean there's plenty of upside left in the market. |
