Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: AC Flyer who wrote (36067)	7/14/2003 2:49:44 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (2) of 74559

AC(Why not DC?) Flyer, I don't agree that we are all bearish zealots here. There's you and Maurice who are never pessimistic. The disputes are refreshing. Did you ever see a real bull market that lasted much more than one decade? I saw one in Japan, starting in 1965. P/E's were mostly single digit. Yields were higher than inflation. The population was saving like crazy, not spending like crazy. The stock market was unpopular. Something like these conditions also occurred in post World War II U.S. Another depression was widely presumed so the stock market was unpopular etc.etc. People worked hard and saved as much as they could. The situation of the present in the U.S. doesn't look at all like those. The stock market is still largely popular. Saving isn't popular. Single P/E digits on a stock price would be quite suspicious. Balance of payments are a gigantic enough problem; forget about the huge public deficits. (If you can.) Can one make some money these days in the stock market? I think one can, but preferably outside the U.S. In the U.S. the stocks look most vulnerable. Most of us zealots would turn about on a dime if you could show that the situation is basically favorable.

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