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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 248.54+10.1%3:59 PM EST
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To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (17240)8/5/1997 8:45:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug   of 53903
 
>>1. Perception is reality and not the other way around.<<

not true. reality and truth are things we must search for.

you are confusing reality with information used to make decisions. based upon your statement, there is no such thing as a "bad" decision because all decisions are based upon "reality."

many egocentrics have made this mistake before ;-)

let me give you an example. when gems fell to $8 1/8 last april, the "perception" was that the paging equipment industry was in big, big trouble. this was not the reality. after getting in at $10 3/8, i tripled my position at $8 1/8. four months later we're at $21.

now, reality does matter in the sense that it impacts perception over time.

as i said, the disconnects are where the big money is made. even if i were wrong (i'm not ;-), i'd rather be wrong buying gems at $8 1/8 than right selling at $8 1/8 ;-)

i was wrong in the past on mu's fundamentals which is why i've done so poorly playing it so far. i didn't expect the whole korean situation to work out the way it did. the bulls apparently did (or they were lucky - either way it doesn't matter).

the reality is that 16 mb dram pricing is 25% below last q and falling. it may turn around it may not. 70% of the q is over. estimates are for a 20% increase in eps.

we shall see....

ps - philosophy classes aren't that expensive ;-)
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