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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Sully- who wrote (58689)	7/15/2003 3:28:41 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) of 65232

Greenspan presented the committee with the Fed's latest economic forecasting, predicting that the economy would grow this year in a range of 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent. That represented a significant cut from the Fed's February forecast, when it had predicted growth this year would be a faster rate of between 3.25 percent to 3.5 percent. So .75 less growth predicted, than before. How about some "nonsense extrapolation"? Since the current market was based (to some extent) on the previous predictions, that have now been reduced by 21% to 23 %, should the indices be expected to fall by 21% to 23%? Don’t expect that question to be asked. OTOH, a dawning that the second half “ain’t gonna be great”, might get a reaction. Since this market is like a cork in a sea of liquidity, I wouldn’t expect it to fall as much as would be justified by the economics. Could be wrong (and it wouldn’t be a novel experience), but barring a major catastrophe (economic or otherwise [with an economic component]), it’s hard to see this “cork” submerged very far. JMO lurqer

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