Hi Dennis,
I have ongoing arguments with fellow investors regarding TA vs
fundamentals. My beliefs are as follows, (this is NOT intended to
start an argument or anything personal against TA followers)
How did the charts of say IOMG and MSFT look different than
the charts of say SYQT or other dogs? A TA really shouldnt care
about the earnings of a company or even the company name, he should
just have tons of charts in his office a nd say ok, here is a winner,
here is a loser. If TA can accurately explain major price
mvoements then IOMG should have been so easy to explain. I still
challenge people this point for about 10 years now and no TA has
ever come across with a valid argument. The price of the stock
of the long term will follow the earnings
growth of the company, not what the past trading has said about
it. One TA said to me that TA is good for short term but not long
term. Well isnt the short term many times over equal to the long term?
I have challenged TA investors many times to come on SI for a stock
and post a daily PREDICTION for about 2 months based solely on TA
and see how accurate it is for the swings. No one takes me up
on this argument, because it cant be done accurately enough.
True you can look at RAIN now and say , yes base support is
22 and resistance is 29. This is after the fact! Tell me this
when the stock was at 36!!!!!
My other point is that if TA is so useful and predictable,
how come not a single market timer is in the 10 wealthiest
people in the US according to Forbes. Buffet doesnt use charts.
If there was some magical formula, dont you think someone
would have it and double their money every day with options on
stocks or the market?
Again, not trying to start arguments or flame wars, but I have made
money in stocks and can honestly say never once looked at a chart and
/or volume analysis. My doctorate is in finance and my dissertation
supports the buy and hold strategy in stock markets for the past 100
years. B/Hold beat all forms of market timing.
I a computer science professor at NIU. Go huskies!
BTW, my concern for RAIN is that the Atlantic City cafe will
not draw kids, since Atlantic City is for adults. Do you have
any thoughts on this? I think kid attraction is the main benefit
to RAIN.
Jim
PS. Good call MILO!!! In at 8 on this. I wish I knew about rain
earlier. Got to go to malls more often. |
