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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates

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To: tuck who wrote (569)	7/16/2003 6:08:50 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (2) of 897

Hi tuck, Which broker? There is no question that ribavirin going generic was well known. What will support the market caps ICN $1.4B and RNA $750M? 100% of RNA's revenues come from ribavirin royalties. Over 100% of ICN's net income are the result of ribavirin royalties. Drugs* that MIGHT replace ribavirin look like they are 2 or more years to approval. Ex-royalties ICN has $400M in revenue, loses money and has close to $500M in LTD. There also seems to be some boot-strapping. About half of ICN's market cap is represented by RNA shares they hold. But RNA share price is supported by ICN's offer to buy the 30M shares of RNA they do not already own which will exhaust the cash and A/R of RNA. This is too circular for me. I can't see the bull case. So I shorted ICN. ij * Levovirin & viramidine

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