Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (36142)	7/16/2003 8:51:47 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Just to another slice at Klaus, his number of 650 million cars is way too high... Why ? because unlike demographic aging populations like Germany, the average age in China is much lower. The kids will be sitting in the back seats, not driving. So 400 million cars wold be a more reasonalbe target. A certain proportion would be used cars, imported from Europe, US, and especially Japan, where laws create incentives to sell uesd cars early. 400 million cars in 17 years means about 2.5 million cars per year. Assuming a 20 year life, more realistically 3.5 to 6 million cars per year. The US buys between 11 and 16 million cars and trucks per year and makes only about half of those. Austrailia has plenty of iron ore and coal to make steel. There's lots of natual gas in Asia to make plastics, and rubber cana come from Malaysia. Concrete for highways can be made locally, with the energy from coal. I don't see what the problem is....

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