re: ["I am agnostic the markets. Until these will be free markets again."]
...Louis, very important point.
The markets are far from free.
We are witnessing a historic level of intervention, stimulation, stabilization and outright manipulation... so why do so many, still fail to factor this into their investment/trading decision's ?
The Bears stayed too bearish for too long - and underestimated the power of the "fix".... the Bulls will probably get too Bullish here & stay so, for too long "over-estimating" the momenteum of the fix...so one can either try to capture a nice in & out trade on these moves in both directions (taking what the market gives you) and/or patiently wait for extreme's in either direction to occur and throw a portfolio weighted play against those extremes when/if they appear.
So, I don't think your puts are a bad decision here... we just had a "Student Body Right" correographed Market Rally... and historic valuation metric's and sober earnings outlooks don't quite support this level of present bullishness.
I'm neither "Mega" Bullish, or Bearish...
There will be some money to be made in both directions for sometime to come imho... I'm just patiently waiting for "extreme" over reactions in either direction to bet against...and while the rally is a bit overdone here... I wouldn't call it "extreme" quite yet... worthy of some shorting/puts yes - but, not on a portfolio weighted basis yet imo....10% here, 10% there... it adds up over time...
Goldstocks imho, may stay rangebound at HUI 115-150 for a while longer...but,with more risk to the downside, than the upside imho.
From the HUI 150ish Triple Top here - I think there is more likliehood of seeing sub HUI 100 within 12 months than HUI 200.
- the CB's can certainly cap Gold, support the USD and Prop up the Markets for another 12 months - negating any real possibility of significant new highs for Goldstocks - ie: HUI 200+...and if the US Economy & Earnings are turning the corner...and they are to an extent imho; then HUI sub 100 is a real possibility within the next 6-12 months if this recovery gains traction. |
