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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor
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To: SI-Shark who wrote (796)8/5/1997 10:43:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson   of 4710
 
Shark, You make an excellent point -- when it appears that the new apps will require a leap into some new technology, we need to identify those early enough to leap on the train. And, I suspect you have a pretty good feel for that technology, so hope you will share your thoughts.
The folks who are running up VTSS, however, I don't believe are doing a comparative analysis of InP vs galium aresenide...they are looking at those numbers I cited: rapid increase in revenues accompanied by ever more rapid increases in net earnings. That means margins are expanding. Expanding margins happen when competition is ineffective and/or when supply/demand factors favor the supplier(s) in a market. Seems to be the current case with VTSS. They dominate their market niche and are doing everything they can to expand output at the current plant, and pushing to get the Colorado fab on line early, as I understand it.
Don't get me wrong, Shark, I have a very high regard for your opinion... but I wouldn't let a solid insight into superior technologies intefere with an appreciation for the financial factors driving the stock price. We could be in for a pause, and maybe you would make a fast few bucks on a pullback...but I still urge caution in thinking that way. :-) With cheeful best wishes for the success of your investment strategy (and I am aware that bears make money :-) )) dlo
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