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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Alighieri who wrote (172004)7/18/2003 7:07:35 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 1578035
 
Is there a point in our future?

Could you rephrase the question. I have no idea what you mean by that.

Edit - If you mean will China be able to take TAiwan intact (at least without American interference) at some point, then I would say maybe. If you go out far enough in to the future anything can happen. Also I can easily imagine several decades from now China having enough power to invade and conquer Taiwan. The destruction of the invasion would mean that Taiwan wasn't really fully intact but it would be a lot closer to intact that what China can take now.

Right now, even without American intervention China could only try to cut off supplies to and exports from Taiwan, and attack Taiwan with missiles and aircraft. If they use nukes Taiwain is done. If they don't they could keep raining down enough destruction that there is some chance an invasion could work but it wouldn't be certain, and even if it did work it would be a shattered husk of what used to be Taiwan.

If China built something sort of like the US marine corps (something easier talked about then done) and its amphibious capability then an invasion could be pulled off but even then losses would be heavy.

Unless the US disarms a lot I don't think China will be able to invade Taiwan if Taiwan has American assistance any time in the forseable future.

To sum up, the only way China could take Taiwan would be if the US doesn't intervene, and if they don't mind taking tremendous losses to conquer a shattered husk. This might slowly change but even if China becomes more powerful an invasion of Taiwan will be hard, as long as Taiwan doesn't get weaker.

Tim
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