Paul, All: I've not read this on your thread but PBHG growth fund manager, Gary Pilgrim, added ASND to his portfolio when it was a puppy. More interestingly, though he bought much more in the $60s and again on a dip into the $40s. Gary has been very bullish on ASND for sometime. Even when Barron's interviewed him (chided him actually earlier this year) after ASND's drop from close to $80, Gary's advice was that the market was over-reacting. He stated that ASND's road ahead was improving. He was one of a handful of analysts that was actually excited about ASND's merger with CSCC and the market correlations relative to growth that it could bring (contrast this with H&Qs analyst comments regarding the merger - you'll find that H&Q had advised their clients that CSCC was their best pick of 1997 while CSCC was trading above $70 - but H&Q felt terribly burned with CSCC's fall - so, I think, it was an emotional response from H&Q regarding their negative attitudes about the merger). Gary's comments were that he'd studied ASND's, CSCOs markets extensively and was convined that ASND remained an excellent buy, even moreso after the merger (due to economies of scale).
Gary Pilgrim's PBHG growth fund was ONLY the nation's top performing mutual fund (growth and otherwise) from 1988 to 1996. His fund suffered along with other growth funds in late 96 and early 97 (maybe more due to his astute bullishness on ASND - #2 portfolio weighting), but his fund has since bounced back. ASND continues to be one of the funds largest holdings (top 5). I'm not touting PBHG's funds, but Gary's top picks have not failed to offer sizable returns above his purchase prices. Gary's model showed ASND to be a buy in the $60s. He hasn't sold any shares according to the last filed report. His last comments were that he didn't plan on selling ASND. I will continue to follow Gary on this one. Track Gary's long term record against Nikos'. I would bet that Nikos would be embarrassed by that comparison. I follow market waves and ASND was definitely showing a buy this afternoon prior to UBS announcement. A solid consolidation was building with the downward pressure minimizing. We've owned ASND since pre-split days.
Nonetheless, CSCOs entrance into the ISP market is just that - an entrance. Any phone company/internet provider can test products, but simply testing products doesn't make sales. ASND has been able to make the ISP sales and a profit. ASND is entering CSCO's markets too. Given that only 8% (Pilgrim's number) of the potential universe is networked, that leaves 92% left to go, not to mention the upkeep and retooling for future sales. Someone has got to do it, and it's not going to be just one company. |
