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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (106781)7/20/2003 10:20:23 PM
From: Dayuhan  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 

Option (3) is to provide S. Korea and Japan with their own nuclear deterrent, thereby nullifying any political or military advantage Kim Jong Il believes he will gain by building nuclear weapons. M.A.D worked for the US and USSR for 50 years. It will work on the Korean peninsula.

If we were worried about a North Korean attack on S. Korea or Japan, that would work. The concern, though, is not that Korea will nuke somebody, but that they will sell a weapon to somebody outside the region. Giving nukes to the S. Korean or the Japanese would have no impact at all on that possibility.

And were we to have 100% confidence that Kim Jong Il was going to be in a certain location at a certain time, I'm sure the temptation would be great to kill him.

I don't think we'd try. The potential penalty for failing - or even for succeeding - is too high.
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