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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: GST who wrote (106787)7/20/2003 10:40:47 PM
From: Dayuhan  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
Discussions of North Korea have to start with acknowledgement of a few simple realities.

First, they have a deterrent. They almost certainly have some nukes, and will have more soon. They can't destroy us, but they can make a mess that we cannot tolerate or risk provoking.

Second, they had a deterrent even before they went nuclear. The size and positioning of North Korean conventional forces has been an effective deterrent for years.

Third, resulting from the above, it is ridiculous to fault past administrations for not taking a more aggressive posture toward N. Korea. The carrot was used instead of the stick because the carrot was available and the stick was not. By the time the N. Koreans were removed from the Russian/Chinese deterrent umbrella, their conventional deterrent was already in place. There was no window of military opportunity.

Now the N. Koreans have raised the stakes, and there are no easy options. That's probably the most important realization of all: there is no simple answer, and no solution that is certain to succeed. Anyone who pretends that these things exist is succumbing to dangerous self-delusion.
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