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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 210.78-4.8%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST
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To: Petz who wrote (98307)7/21/2003 6:10:08 PM
From: Dan3Read Replies (1) of 275872
 
Re: Keep talking, John, keep talking.

LOL!!

I think AMD needs 18 months w/o 64-bit intel X86 competition in order to gain sufficient momentum to be able to displace Intel as the owner of the "current" X86 platform.

I have my doubts Intel will let them have that much time. AMD will certainly get 6 months, and maybe a year. Whether or not they can establish enough of a position in that short a time to hold off Intel is a question. If they get 18 months I think it will be a done deal.

One thing that's interesting to consider is that there were a limited number of unused opcodes available in the X86 instruction space, and AMD has assigned operations to the critical ones. With AMD64 instructions already established in Linux and (hopefull soon) Windows, it won't really be possible for Intel to come up with a competing instruction set. Intel would either have to brand its chips "AMD64 compatible" (and they'd rather go into a different business) or they'd have to come up with a new set of instructions for the opcodes already assigned in Linux and Windows to AMD instructions and hope that Vendors would drop their AMD64 Linux and Windows software and replace it with a different set of instructions to go with Intel's version of those opcodes. That's going to get pretty tough to talk people into once there are 10 to 15 million users of Windows and linux systems running AMD64.

And that will very likely be the case in 18 months, probably be the case in 12 months, but probably not 6.

Regards,

Dan
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