RtS
<Long or short this market is scary to me.>
It is to me as well - For now, I am keeping my "powder dry".:) Every day seems to bring a new "wrinkle" or change of opinion. The Bulls and the Bears are really battling it out.
To me, the rhetoric now is eerily the same as last year at this time. At that time many people were pushing the up coming recovery for the 2nd half of 2002 - things were going to be great! All of a sudden the realization hit that there was not going to be a great 2nd half and the sell off began lasting until 9 October.
Now of course, this is this year, not last year. We are another 12 months closer to an inevitable recovery than we were last year at this time. The only point is - I think the jury is still out on when the recovery is coming. The bulls insist it is right around the corner - like the 2nd half of this year. A lot of hope and anecdotal words out there that insist the recovery is here - so far the monthly results do not support it. The just released SEMI report is just as "dead" as it has been for the past 27 months - actually, it is worse than last year at this time.
In May 2002, bookings came in at 996M, this year in May, bookings came in at 757M, down 239M from last year. In June 2002, bookings rose to 1105M, this year in June, bookings fell to 751M, down 354M from last year. In percentage terms, this year's bookings for June is down 32 percent from last year.
I think we are in for some more consolidation before prices rise much further - we won't have long to wait to find out if that prognostication is true.:)
Don |
